The bye week blues

Two shootout losses with the best offense we’ve had in 30 years.

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The bye week blues. Idaho 42, Montana 35.
Bobby BallWeek 7 Sunday reactionWashington-Grizzly Stadium

The bye week blues

Two shootout losses with the best offense we’ve had in 30 years.

Points scored, two straight losses79First time in program history
Defensive or special-teams touchdowns0The offense is doing it all
Montana at Roos Field since 20101-6Next stop, Oct. 31

We lost to Idaho. We lost the Stein, at home, on the stadium's 40th birthday, with more than 150 former players on the field watching the defense failing to do anything to stop the Vandals. I heard one of those former players joke they could cobble together 11 of the older guys and do better. Montana is 5-3, 3-2 in the league and the UC Davis game good vibes sure feel like a long time ago.

Montana has played 1,207 football games that I could find, and before this month it had never lost two in a row while scoring 35 in both. We just scored 79 in back-to-back losses. The old program record for points in two straight losses was 68, set in 1976. 50 years ago.

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01

Ah Yat is playing out of his mind

Keali'i Ah Yat has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 2,280 yards, 22 touchdowns and two interceptions. He leads the Big Sky in passing yards and touchdown passes, six touchdowns clear of anybody else. Over these recent two losses he was 54 of 70 for 685 yards, eight touchdowns and one pick. Against Idaho he threw five touchdowns with no interceptions and lost.

Eli Gillman has 1,016 rushing yards at 7.1 a carry, leads the league in rushing touchdowns and in scoring, and took Marc Mariani's career all-purpose record against Idaho. Brooks Davis leads the Big Sky in catches and receiving yards, 64 for 914, and caught three touchdowns Saturday. Pease has three guys who are the best in the league at their position, and he’s mostly using them at a world-class clip, but we are losing. For years we’ve begged for an offense like this to support a standout D. My how the turn tables.

The offense kept getting better
Montana's points per possession, by game · 2026
MontanaThe last two, both losses
0123452.553.462.501.314.433.273.824.38S. UtahDrakeUtah TechOregon St.UC DavisN. ColoradoNAUIdahoboth lossespoints per possession0123452.553.462.501.314.433.273.824.38SUUDRKUTOSUUCDUNCNAUIDAboth lossespoints per possession
Both losses beat every earlier game but UC Davis, and together they are the best back-to-back pair of the season.

Montana's offense played one of the best games in FCS this year against Idaho. We stayed on schedule on 34 of 58 snaps, better than 97 percent of FCS single games this season. It added half a point of expected scoring every snap, produced 10 explosive plays and netted 9.88 yards a dropback. Across the two games it scored on 12 of its 19 possessions. We are first in the Big Sky and sixth in FCS in total offense.

I spent September telling people to stop with the Ah Yat slander. I'd like a little credit for that now. Also I’m reopening some of the Ah Yacht Club's leather seats for new members.

02

The two worst defensive games in four seasons

By the measure I trust most, how often the other offense stays on schedule, Idaho and Northern Arizona had the two best days against a Montana defense in the 48 games we have play-by-play for since 2023. The two worst, in order, back to back. Third on that list is South Dakota State in the 2024 playoffs.

The two worst days for our defense in four seasons
Opponent success rate, the share of snaps on schedule · Montana's defense, by game, 2026
Montana's first sixNorthern ArizonaIdaho2026 FCS single-game median
30%40%50%60%2026 FCS single-game median, 39.7%46.3%35.3%47.1%50.7%40.8%43.1%57.1%60.3%S. UtahDrakeUtah TechOregon St.UC DavisN. ColoradoNAUIdahothe worst two of 48 Montana games since 2023 ▸30%40%50%60%FCS median 39.7%46.3%35.3%47.1%50.7%40.8%43.1%57.1%60.3%SUUDRKUTOSUUCDUNCNAUIDAthe worst two of 48 games since 2023 ▸
The first six games sit around the median. The last two sit above every game in the house play-by-play.

Take out the kneels and the clock running out at the half, and Northern Arizona and Idaho had 16 real possessions between them. Twelve ended in the end zone. Our defense ended four. Through the first six games, on the same count, this defense ended about seven of every ten drives with a punt, a turnover, a missed kick or a stop on downs. In the last two it ended one in four. Some of that regression is injuries. Most of it is the scheme being on film.

Seven of every ten drives used to die
Opponent possessions by how they ended · kneels and end-of-half clock drives removed
Stopped: punt, turnover, downs, missed field goalTouchdownField goal
First six games69.1%26.5%4.4%Last two games25%75%stoppedtouchdownfield goalended by our defense: one in fourFirst six games69.1%26.5%4.4%Last two games25%75%ended by our defense: one in four
Same defense, same count. The share of drives it ended and the share that ended in the end zone have traded places.

The last time we forced a three-and-out was the third quarter in Flagstaff, with Northern Arizona already up 35-24. Twelve opponent possessions have come and gone since without one. Idaho punted for real once, with 2:05 left and a seven-point lead to protect, and its third downs went 11 of 14.

Ninety-one in two games is the most we've given up since Eastern Washington and Weber State hung 104 on us in 2024, but we pulled out the Eastern game 52-49. The 1949 team gave up 110 to Oregon State and Idaho in consecutive weeks, so if you are looking for a lower bar, we have to go back to the Truman Administration.

We won the big plays and the field position in both games. We lost finishing drives in both, and in a shootout finishing drives is the whole game. Two stumbles on the last two red zone drives against Idaho sealed our fate. I did not love the play calling, but the offense was far from the culprit for the losses.

03

The offense scored every point this season

Montana has zero defensive touchdowns and zero special-teams touchdowns this season. Every point we've scored, the offense scored, except the safety Northern Arizona handed us on purpose with six seconds left. Last year the defense took back 27 turnovers, 21 of them interceptions. This year it has three interceptions in eight games, and one of them lasted five yards before Chris Johnson II fumbled it back to Idaho at our 39. Idaho scored seven plays later in a game it won by seven.

The defense doesn't have to score. It has to make a team punt every now and then, and give the best offense in the league the ball back on a drive that doesn’t begin with a kickoff.

04

Eleven starters in the secondary

Montana has started 22 different players on defense in eight games, eleven of them in the secondary. The lineup that started the opener has started together exactly once. Against Idaho, six of the eleven opening-night starters weren't in the starting lineup, and four of them didn't play. Kade Boyd is the only defensive back who has started all eight.

Twenty-two starters, eleven in the secondary
Montana's defensive starters by game · each block in order of first start
StartedMissed a start after his first
S. UtahDrakeUtah T.Ore. St.UC DavisN. Colo.NAUIdahoFRONT SEVENTyler KingCooper BuffingtonPeyton WingTanner WilliamsJake MasonSolomon TuliaupupuClay OvenNui ToveyZekiel SeumaloNai MoseJustin EklundSECONDARYKade BoydChris Johnson IITanner HuffBrady BeanerKade CutlerSage SalopekBrock BeanerBraeden OrlandiDevin DunnGabe StroudAshton Paineopening-night starters118875565still in the lineupSUUDRKUTOSUUCDUNCNAUIDAFRONT SEVENTyler KingCooper BuffingtonPeyton WingTanner WilliamsJake MasonSolomon TuliaupupuClay OvenNui ToveyZekiel SeumaloNai MoseJustin EklundSECONDARYKade BoydChris Johnson IITanner HuffBrady BeanerKade CutlerSage SalopekBrock BeanerBraeden OrlandiDevin DunnGabe StroudAshton Paineopener's starters118875565still starting
Read down a column for a lineup and across a row for a starter. The front has settled; the secondary has not.

Bobby 3.0 didn’t blame player unavailability: "I've never used and I never will use injuries as an excuse," he told Skyline after the game. Good for him. Injuries have clearly gutted this secondary, and that's football; nobody is mailing us healthy safeties. Which means we have to stop building the defense around a secondary that isn't there.

05

Sanders is sending more rushers, but he needs to send six

Eric Sanders is trending the right way. Per PFF, Montana blitzed on about one dropback in three through the first five games and on half of them in the last three. Against Idaho we sent extra on 24 of Wood's 44 dropbacks.

Sanders has been sending more
Share of opponent dropbacks Montana blitzed, by game · per PFF · 2026
First five gamesLast three
0%20%40%60%31.7%40.9%39.5%32.4%34.1%48.8%47.5%54.5%S. UtahDrakeUtah TechOregon St.UC DavisN. ColoradoNAUIdahofirst five: about one dropback in threelast three: about half0%20%40%60%31.7%40.9%39.5%32.4%34.1%48.8%47.5%54.5%SUUDRKUTOSUUCDUNCNAUIDAfirst five: about one dropback in threelast three: about half
Every one of the last three games sits above every one of the first five.

When we sent extra, Wood averaged 6.4 yards a throw. When we sat back and covered, he averaged 10.9. The blitz is the only thing that slowed him down. Most of what we've been sending is a fifth rusher, though, and five hasn't been enough to get the QB on the ground or get us off the field.

The one real stop Idaho's offense gave us came on its last third down, a third-and-8 after a false start, and I watched Sanders send six. Wood immediately had a defender in his face and threw it incomplete and Idaho punted. We have seen what the shell does against a quarterback who can hold the ball and run. It does nothing. It gives a good quarterback all day to find the guy the backup safety lost, usually over the middle.

The other half is tackling, and the tackling is a real problem. PFF has us missing 47 tackles in the last three games, almost one in five, after missing about one in eight before that. Even when we get to the right guy, he's still running.

And then we miss the tackle
Montana's missed-tackle rate by game, missed tackles ÷ attempts · per PFF · 2026
First five gamesLast three
0%5%10%15%20%25%15.5%3.5%7.5%17.9%12.3%15.9%22.1%19.8%S. UtahDrakeUtah TechOregon St.UC DavisN. ColoradoNAUIdahofirst five: about one in eightlast three: almost one in five0%5%10%15%20%25%15.5%3.5%7.5%17.9%12.3%15.9%22.1%19.8%SUUDRKUTOSUUCDUNCNAUIDAfirst five: about one in eightlast three: almost one in five
The two worst tackling games of the season are the last two, and only Oregon State got close.

Somebody killed our shot at a top-eight seed and a first-round bye, and I've solved the mystery. It was Colonel Mustard (DC Sanders and his yellow hat) in Washington-Grizzly Stadium, with the four-deep shell.

I’ve been imploring sending six for weeks. We did it on the biggest defensive snap Saturday, and forced the only real punt of the game. Time to adopt it all the way. If a good offense is going to score on three of every four real possessions against us anyway, a big play costs us almost nothing. They just score a little faster, and our offense gets the ball back sooner. Play man, bring six, make the quarterback beat us in two and a half seconds instead of four.

Bobby 3.0 said the staff talked about taking away the middle and that "we have to play with better leverage." He’s right, but at some point you either aren’t lining your guys up correctly (inexcusable in week 7) or you don’t have guys capable of maintaining leverage. In either case, immediate fixes are needed.

06

The crazy math isn't that crazy

Onside kicks and going for two every time sound like a joke. With our current defense, half of it isn't.

The onside half holds up. FCS teams recover a surprise onside kick about a third of the time. With our (lack of a defense) the last two weeks, the EPA math says we only need to be half as good: recover one time in seven, because a deep kickoff mostly hands the other team a 75-yard touchdown drive anyway. Even the onside kick everybody sees coming gets recovered about one time in ten, which is close to break-even here. We haven't tried one all year.

The two-point half is harder. FCS teams convert 42 percent of two-point tries, for an EPA of 0.84. Jo Silver hasn’t missed a PAT this year, so our EPA kicking is 1. We’d need to convert >50% for the strategy to be live, meaning our goal-line offense has to be better than the average FCS team's. I believe it is, but it's probably not time for that measure—yet.

07

Just get us a couple stops

Against Idaho, one more stop on a touchdown drive makes it 35-35. Two and we win. In Flagstaff the math is uglier, because Northern Arizona also returned a kickoff for a touchdown and gave us a safety at the end, but one more stop gets you a tie and two gets you the win.

At its rate through the first six games, this defense would have gotten about six stops in Flagstaff and five against Idaho. It got three and one. We aren’t asking for the group to be world-beaters, or even above average. All we need from them is to get off the field once or twice more than they did, so the best offense in the league can get their helmets back on without being behind another score.

08

Last Call

Eastern Washington is 2-6, gives up 38 points a game and just let Montana State put 56 on it at home. They are off this week too, probably licking their chops watching our soft coverage. We are 1-6 at Roos Field since 2010, and this series turns into a shootout no matter whose turf it's on: 52-49 in Cheney in 2024, 48-41 and 42-37 Eagles in Missoula in 2017 and 2013.

If this is the secondary we're taking to the red turf, the plan has to change, on defense, on kickoffs, maybe on the PAT. A bye week is the one chance all season to install something new without a game on Saturday. Running the same defense in Cheney with these personnel and two weeks to fix it would be coaching malpractice.

The bye week blues are real. Two losses, the Stein in Moscow and Bozeman waiting for us at the end. You can't coach a quarterback into throwing eight touchdowns in two weeks. You can coach a defense into taking more chances.

Go Griz.

Bobby Ball · Griz football by Schuyler Watt · Numbers from both schools' official stat files and drive charts, CFBD play-by-play cleaned through the house rules, PFF charting through the Idaho game, the Montana record book, and the 2026 FCS single-game baselines built for this column. Drive counts remove kneels and end-of-half clock drives.